Thursday, October 14, 2010

bubble?

Normally, a real estate investment is expected to have about 10+% return a year. Unless my math is off, buying investment property here in motherland just doesn't make sense.

The first image is a list of apartment units for sale at a complex not far north from our apartment. It's service apartment style with management. To the right are the price. 4,900,000, 1,900,000, 2,300,000 etc... Most are one-bedroom suits. The first one on the list shown here is 101 sq meters. The second one was 43.33 sq meters, the third one was 50.9 sq meters... you get the hang of the reading from the image. Then you see 48515, 43850, 45187.. those are "per sql meter" pricing. Tonight, I saw a unit from the same complex was asking 2.5million. An expected monthly income (net) of 6,000 was stated. OK, for one year the return is about 2.88%. Ummm....

Now the second image is the "official" gov't-control published mortgage rates. The first table lists mortgage rates for individuals. 5 year rate is about 5.94%. Alright, if I only get 2.88% return and have to pay 5.94% mortgage rate. Am I having a negative rate of return?

The second table, from this same image, provides a list of mortgage rates for those who use their pension fund $ to purchase. Rates listed are about 2 points lower. Still.... I am running a negative rate of return right?

Don't forget, the "Official" down payment is 30% of the price. If one cannot afford, he/she will have to borrow from parents, relatives and friends. So those have to be pay back. Now, what math will I be running then?

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