1) Shanghainese gov't along with local banks and investment brokerage firms are doing a tour this month to New York and London. The goal, to attract the brightest in the financial sectors to Shanghai to work. Huh? Come again? These people were the brightest that have caused the world financial systems to collapse. And we are hiring them to be here? How many times do we really want to get screwed? I hope this is only an excuse for the Shanghainese gang to do some pre-Christmas touring.
2) As expected Hong Kong residential pricing is dropping. So far, 20% or so. Will drop more as credit from banks is hard to get. HSBC has raised mortgage rate over 75 basis points. Expect the home price continues to fall to 30% by next year. The number of home prices less than the mortgage has surged over 175% in the 3rd quarter. Yikes. This sounded like the US real estate market from before.
3) The Citic Group Hong Kong that purchased the Australian dollar accumulator continues to look money. There is no bottom yet as the contract does not expire until later next year. Good think it is being backed by the Chinese gov't now. But the lost is mounting and won't know what the total tally is. As of yesterday, word was over HK$187billions.
4) An open letter has been sent to the Chinese Central Committee by 10 university economic professors. They want the Chinese gov't to start buying the A shares and the H shares to save the market. Have not heard what is the response.
5) A history professor in a Shanghai university was being investigated as "counter revolution". He was done in by two female students who attended his class. Apparently, he was critical of the Chinese policies during the pre-cultural revolution time. Go figures.
6) The world largest container producer, a Chinese company has stopped production line for over 2 months now. 38% of the employees are on "holiday".
7) The might boost Taiwanese stock market. The Taiwanese gov't has agreed to allow Chinese QDII funds to invest into Taiwan. That's huge for Taiwan as it will not depend on US. At this rate, Taiwan "will return to" China virtually but not physically. QDII is Qualified Domestic funds registered and approved by Chinese gov't. These funds collectively lost a HUGE sum of money last year in then stock markets abroad. But the management fee doubled. Wonder what these funds will invest in Taiwan.
8) The Chinese gov't is setting up a new performance review system for civil servants. If one employee has two years of "incompetent" status, he will be fired. Gee.... I thank SlackTel should discuss w/ the Chinese gov't on this. Along with this new system, bonuses will be paid out to civic servants who have "Excellent" status.
9) This is interesting... Commerical property sale, the gone years used of the slogan "guarantee rent after sale" (售后包租) is banned by the Shanghainese gov't. As early as 2005, the Chinese gov't had announced ban of this type of sale tactic. No one really cared until now. By banning this tactic, sale of commercial space will be very difficult and expect to drop dramatically. This guarantee was used to attracted large amount of investors to buy, in particular in the area of service apartment and shop usage. Now I understand why there have been so many shops opening up at places that should not have been.
10) With the economic downturn continues to affect Chinese market, commercial space demand is expected to drop. Next year's average rent cost will decrease. By how much, not known yet. Some newly developed space or still being built are giving out "up to 1 year of free rent". Or RMB1.5 per square meter favorable rent. The current rate is about RMB2.5 per square meter. Further, expect franchises are holding back in space demand pending on the economic recovery. Shops along Nanjing Road West (南京西路）and Huai Hai Lu (淮海路), even though have no sale, but still want to maintain a store front on these streets. These two streets are well known for shoppers. Polling of major cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xian all expected rental cost decreases.
11) Chinese real estate analysts all said residential price has not dropped bottom yet. Maybe by 2nd half of next year. And 2010 1st half will rise and will enter another phase of elevated pricing. Really?
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Torture
Went to friend's place for a haircut and steam. Chinese herbal steam that was. It had over 37 different types of herb. Supposedly to be great for my Arthritis. Yes, it was good when the steam started and the subsequent 2 hours afterward. After that, I can tell you the weather was changing.
It was funny during my "steam". Usually, the lady would have left the room; but this one just sat and talked. Why not. I needed the practice anyway, Mandarin. ;-) She was quite petite, and about 27 or so; but man, she was mean. Very hard on my shoulder and neck and head. Found every knots on my shoulders and back due to my computer posture. Hurt like hell. I didn't know if I was sweating from the steam or from the pain! I had to change towels during my hour-long torture session.
The steam, from the Chinese medicine standpoint was to promote blood flow. Most people were so out of shape, they could only do 10 minutes. Me, 25 minutes today. I sweat from my head. And this lady just laughed and kept wiping sweat from my face.
It was funny during my "steam". Usually, the lady would have left the room; but this one just sat and talked. Why not. I needed the practice anyway, Mandarin. ;-) She was quite petite, and about 27 or so; but man, she was mean. Very hard on my shoulder and neck and head. Found every knots on my shoulders and back due to my computer posture. Hurt like hell. I didn't know if I was sweating from the steam or from the pain! I had to change towels during my hour-long torture session.
The steam, from the Chinese medicine standpoint was to promote blood flow. Most people were so out of shape, they could only do 10 minutes. Me, 25 minutes today. I sweat from my head. And this lady just laughed and kept wiping sweat from my face.
Nice Thai food
Went to a nice little Thai restaurant for supper tonight. This is the place: Alyssa. It's opened by a friend of a friend. The location is at Taikang Lu (泰康路）. It's an artsy part of town with 4 lanes being converted into art galleries and all sorts of ethnic restaurants. Pretty cool. Had a bottle of French wine, Treviac. It was great with spicy food. Very smooth red wine. No need to let it breath. Open, drink. That was it. I can get use to this wine. 1/2 a bottle with another friend later, I am getting sleepy...
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
A downgraded product!
I was forced to "upgrade" to the newest Microsoft Office 2008 for Mac because some businesses don't know how to change the default Microsoft Office setting. This setting allows all documents to be viewed by people who do not want to shell out over $500.00 for a "new and improved" software that is totally non-user friendly or see no point of upgrading for unwanted new "features". The setting is only a click away. Nonetheless, after have to re-saving documents for iron-wife all the time and some "downgraded" documents could not be edited, I broke down. Thank you Microsoft! I bought the Microsoft Office 2008 for Mac. It works great and the User interface is 1000% better than the Windows version. But that's pretty much the end of it. Apparently, Microsoft has taken away the most useful piece of feature from the product. NO Visual Basic (VB). This means I cannot do programming right on the Excel spreadsheet. This programming language provides automation and cross-platform coding. No VB, no streamlining for me to get some invoicing system going here.
Now, I have to download OpenOffice. It is a FREE full features Office product. Actually, more stable than MS-Office. And if your Excel spreadsheet crashes for some strange reason, do not panic. You can use the Spreadsheet program from the OpenOffice to recover. For FREE!!!
As I am typing this out, my Macbook Pro is downloading OpenOffice from the Net thru the ever preying eyes of the commie firewall.
Now, I have to download OpenOffice. It is a FREE full features Office product. Actually, more stable than MS-Office. And if your Excel spreadsheet crashes for some strange reason, do not panic. You can use the Spreadsheet program from the OpenOffice to recover. For FREE!!!
As I am typing this out, my Macbook Pro is downloading OpenOffice from the Net thru the ever preying eyes of the commie firewall.
Monday, December 1, 2008
2008 Shanghai Marathon
Here are snapshots from the marathon coming thru Nanjing Road West (南京西路）. It passed thru the front door of our apartment; we had two friends running in it.
The leaders
Catch-up crew
More catch-up crew
The wave!
The leaders
Catch-up crew
More catch-up crew
The wave!
Spectator
The 2008 Shanghai Marathon came thru our street Sunday morning. I found a very interesting spectator. This represents the 2009 Winter style. BTW, people do wear their PJs out including bunny slippers sometimes.
Around Shanghai...
Who said the economy is not doing well? There is no such things to the restaurant businesses here in Shanghai, except for those who sell hairy crabs. The end of year banquet booking is up, that's for Chinese New Year Eve by the way. And the price goes up with it. On average per table cost is up by 8% to 10%. And over 80% of the top restaurants are booked out already. Also, next year's wedding banquet bookings for next May and October are full with a price hike of at least 10%. Future couples are forced to book alternative months. Traditionally, May and October are the best weather time to have wedding. All booked out.
Now to a more "grounded" news:
- Shanghainese city gov't has established counseling units at some downtown office buildings. This is to assist white collar workers in dealing with potential layoffs and the groomy economy ahead. Most white collar workers during the last 5 years have enjoyed tremendous employment bargaining power. And the average age is about 25 - 29. Now, they are facing experience that they are ill prepared for.
- Shanghainese real estate developers are swamping a group of Wenzhou （温州）investors. These investors made a lot of money during the Shanghai property boom. They were known to be shrew and possess lots of cash. This group is here to start looking for properties to speculate. In my humble opinion, this group was in the right time at the right place. But good for them.
- As expected, the Chinese "bail out" package is not working. The export driven economy is hurting. With the new Labour Law came into effect this January, lots of manufacturers were looking for a way out. The economic downturn was timely for the manufacturers to close up shops with an excuse. Some left overnight without notice or payout to the workers. Apparently, over 600+ shops have closed along the south coast in the Guangdong (广东）area.
- Heard from the street: DBS, the Development Bank of Singapore, is trying to introduce new financial instruments to offer to the general public. One insider said: "don't buy". It's not time and cash is still king.
- 56% jump in new apartment sales in November compared to October; no kidding. October, no one bought as things were all down. The reason for an upshot in November was due to gov't stimulus package on interest rate drop and mortgage policy. Speculation on the upshot was due to the Wenzhou investors are not entirely true. Shanghainese people might thing last month was cheap enough to switch out their old apartment with a comparable new one. Because of the interest rate drop, some developers have begun restarting idle projects, but still there will be a very tough sell next year.
- The Chinese Central Gov't may roll out Depositor Insurance in 2009. Maybe... This has been in a "study" phase for the last 10 years.
- Pork price per Kg in China has dropped significantly of late since it peak earlier this year. Lots of people have made money and lots have lost a lot more this year. The Chinese thinking of "up 1 down 2" - up one year and down the following two years, thinks the pork price drop will end in early 2009. The price drop was due to over supply; last year everyone was raising pigs in order to acquire a huge profit from the pork shortage. Now, the supply is more than demand. Way too much. One speculation of price drop is from foreign investors into pig farms. From raising to slaughtering to end product. Reference here.
- Personal observation. Air quality in Shanghai downtown (where I live) has significantly polluted. Just hazy brown. The long emptied building just 200m away is now in a full renovation phase. Dust just kick up everywhere. The city buses, some just spill out thick brown smog as they pull from the bus stop. I am afraid, the more tall buildings being built here, more exhaust and more exhaust being trapped and cannot go anywhere. Maybe time to move. The Shanghainese city gov't is using big construction projects to counteract the economic slump. For how long?
Now to a more "grounded" news:
- Shanghainese city gov't has established counseling units at some downtown office buildings. This is to assist white collar workers in dealing with potential layoffs and the groomy economy ahead. Most white collar workers during the last 5 years have enjoyed tremendous employment bargaining power. And the average age is about 25 - 29. Now, they are facing experience that they are ill prepared for.
- Shanghainese real estate developers are swamping a group of Wenzhou （温州）investors. These investors made a lot of money during the Shanghai property boom. They were known to be shrew and possess lots of cash. This group is here to start looking for properties to speculate. In my humble opinion, this group was in the right time at the right place. But good for them.
- As expected, the Chinese "bail out" package is not working. The export driven economy is hurting. With the new Labour Law came into effect this January, lots of manufacturers were looking for a way out. The economic downturn was timely for the manufacturers to close up shops with an excuse. Some left overnight without notice or payout to the workers. Apparently, over 600+ shops have closed along the south coast in the Guangdong (广东）area.
- Heard from the street: DBS, the Development Bank of Singapore, is trying to introduce new financial instruments to offer to the general public. One insider said: "don't buy". It's not time and cash is still king.
- 56% jump in new apartment sales in November compared to October; no kidding. October, no one bought as things were all down. The reason for an upshot in November was due to gov't stimulus package on interest rate drop and mortgage policy. Speculation on the upshot was due to the Wenzhou investors are not entirely true. Shanghainese people might thing last month was cheap enough to switch out their old apartment with a comparable new one. Because of the interest rate drop, some developers have begun restarting idle projects, but still there will be a very tough sell next year.
- The Chinese Central Gov't may roll out Depositor Insurance in 2009. Maybe... This has been in a "study" phase for the last 10 years.
- Pork price per Kg in China has dropped significantly of late since it peak earlier this year. Lots of people have made money and lots have lost a lot more this year. The Chinese thinking of "up 1 down 2" - up one year and down the following two years, thinks the pork price drop will end in early 2009. The price drop was due to over supply; last year everyone was raising pigs in order to acquire a huge profit from the pork shortage. Now, the supply is more than demand. Way too much. One speculation of price drop is from foreign investors into pig farms. From raising to slaughtering to end product. Reference here.
- Personal observation. Air quality in Shanghai downtown (where I live) has significantly polluted. Just hazy brown. The long emptied building just 200m away is now in a full renovation phase. Dust just kick up everywhere. The city buses, some just spill out thick brown smog as they pull from the bus stop. I am afraid, the more tall buildings being built here, more exhaust and more exhaust being trapped and cannot go anywhere. Maybe time to move. The Shanghainese city gov't is using big construction projects to counteract the economic slump. For how long?
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