Around Shanghai...

Who said the economy is not doing well? There is no such things to the restaurant businesses here in Shanghai, except for those who sell hairy crabs. The end of year banquet booking is up, that's for Chinese New Year Eve by the way. And the price goes up with it. On average per table cost is up by 8% to 10%. And over 80% of the top restaurants are booked out already. Also, next year's wedding banquet bookings for next May and October are full with a price hike of at least 10%. Future couples are forced to book alternative months. Traditionally, May and October are the best weather time to have wedding. All booked out.

Now to a more "grounded" news:

- Shanghainese city gov't has established counseling units at some downtown office buildings. This is to assist white collar workers in dealing with potential layoffs and the groomy economy ahead. Most white collar workers during the last 5 years have enjoyed tremendous employment bargaining power. And the average age is about 25 - 29. Now, they are facing experience that they are ill prepared for.

- Shanghainese real estate developers are swamping a group of Wenzhou （温州）investors. These investors made a lot of money during the Shanghai property boom. They were known to be shrew and possess lots of cash. This group is here to start looking for properties to speculate. In my humble opinion, this group was in the right time at the right place. But good for them.

- As expected, the Chinese "bail out" package is not working. The export driven economy is hurting. With the new Labour Law came into effect this January, lots of manufacturers were looking for a way out. The economic downturn was timely for the manufacturers to close up shops with an excuse. Some left overnight without notice or payout to the workers. Apparently, over 600+ shops have closed along the south coast in the Guangdong (广东）area.

- Heard from the street: DBS, the Development Bank of Singapore, is trying to introduce new financial instruments to offer to the general public. One insider said: "don't buy". It's not time and cash is still king.

- 56% jump in new apartment sales in November compared to October; no kidding. October, no one bought as things were all down. The reason for an upshot in November was due to gov't stimulus package on interest rate drop and mortgage policy. Speculation on the upshot was due to the Wenzhou investors are not entirely true. Shanghainese people might thing last month was cheap enough to switch out their old apartment with a comparable new one. Because of the interest rate drop, some developers have begun restarting idle projects, but still there will be a very tough sell next year.

- The Chinese Central Gov't may roll out Depositor Insurance in 2009. Maybe... This has been in a "study" phase for the last 10 years.

- Pork price per Kg in China has dropped significantly of late since it peak earlier this year. Lots of people have made money and lots have lost a lot more this year. The Chinese thinking of "up 1 down 2" - up one year and down the following two years, thinks the pork price drop will end in early 2009. The price drop was due to over supply; last year everyone was raising pigs in order to acquire a huge profit from the pork shortage. Now, the supply is more than demand. Way too much. One speculation of price drop is from foreign investors into pig farms. From raising to slaughtering to end product. Reference here.

- Personal observation. Air quality in Shanghai downtown (where I live) has significantly polluted. Just hazy brown. The long emptied building just 200m away is now in a full renovation phase. Dust just kick up everywhere. The city buses, some just spill out thick brown smog as they pull from the bus stop. I am afraid, the more tall buildings being built here, more exhaust and more exhaust being trapped and cannot go anywhere. Maybe time to move. The Shanghainese city gov't is using big construction projects to counteract the economic slump. For how long?